High-tech companies in Asia may lose $ 10.7 billion due to new crown

2020-03-23 17:37:49 信息员 中自网

The epidemic coincided with the Spring Festival. Problems such as factory resumption due to the epidemic outbreak, blocked logistics and transportation, and insufficient raw material inventory brought great pressure to the robot industry chain. What are the specific impacts of the outbreak on the Chinese industrial robot market? Will the market decline further in 2020? This article attempts to analyze these issues in detail.

       1.1 Analysis of the impact of the epidemic on the overall market of Chinese industrial robots:

● Since the growth rate in 2018 has slowed sharply, and since the second half of the year, the market demand for industrial robots has declined for four consecutive quarters. In the second half of 2019, with the stable investment of lithium power and photovoltaics, the recovery of 3C and the acceleration of 5G construction, and the acceleration of the implementation of new energy vehicle projects, the demand for robots has shown a trend of recovery. Originally expected in 2020, with the increase in 3C demand (5G replacement wave + Apple investment year) and the probable beginning of winter in the automotive industry, the industrial robot market may usher in double-digit growth, but the outbreak of the new crown epidemic Makes this prediction too optimistic. However, as the epidemic situation enters a stable stage, the demand of downstream industries will be phased out, and the government is expected to promote the implementation of relevant economic stimulus measures, and the industrial robot market will gradually improve, and the annual growth rate is expected to be around 5%.

● The outbreak of the epidemic casts a shadow over the start of 2020, and the market demand in the first quarter showed a cliff-like decline. MIR believes that with such high-intensity prevention and control measures across the country, the probability of the epidemic will be effectively controlled in the second quarter. At that time, with the full resumption of work by the enterprise, market demand will gradually be released in the second and third quarters. To a certain extent, the phenomenon of labor shortage under the epidemic will further stimulate manufacturing enterprises to improve automation and speed up the process of machine substitution. In addition, the government is expected to introduce a number of economic stimulus measures in the second half of the year, and with the accelerated implementation of 5G technology, driven by growth industries such as new energy, medical, and semiconductor, the robot industry will usher in a wave of explosive growth in the second half of 2020 .

        1.2 Impact of the epidemic on the major downstream industries of industrial robots

        ● Under the new crown epidemic, national holiday delays, difficult factory resumption, and blocked logistics and transportation will undoubtedly cause short-term impacts of varying degrees on the industrial robot downstream industry. Of course, some sub-sectors such as medical supplies and logistics will benefit.

● Vehicle:

       After experiencing a continuous downturn in the automotive industry, production capacity and inventory have been adjusted. With the expected increase in automotive consumption stimulus policies, the industry was expected to achieve positive growth in 2020. However, due to the epidemic situation, offline sales are cold, and the auto industry originally expected that "Little Spring" in 2020 will no longer be, and even the second quarter will be affected. At the manufacturing end, due to the delay in the resumption of work, OEMs and component manufacturers are facing pressure from insufficient capacity. Due to the relatively short industrial chain of auto parts, auto parts have been greatly affected, which in turn has affected the production progress of OEMs. Especially in Hubei Province, where the epidemic is severe, mainstream host manufacturers such as Dongfeng Honda, SAIC-GM, and a large number of Tier1 suppliers such as Bosch, TRW, Johnson Controls, etc., may be delayed until March or April. MIR predicts that there may be a large difference in market performance in the first half and the second half of the year. The investment in the automotive industry in the first half of the year may be negatively affected. In addition, the epidemic is likely to stimulate the release of market demand for private cars in the second half of the year, and the purchase of cars by the first purchasers in advance will prompt car companies to increase production capacity and implement investment plans. Taken together, the robot market in the automotive industry is expected to decline by about 4% in 2020.

       ● 3C:

       3C is a labor-intensive enterprise, and it is difficult to resume work. Taking mobile phones as an example, both the demand side and the supply side will be affected by the epidemic. On the demand side, the epidemic has a direct impact on offline sales. For example, Apple has only tentatively opened some directly-operated stores, and its operating hours have been significantly reduced. OPPO and VIVO sales rely on offline, or will be greatly affected. In the first quarter of 2020, demand for smartphones will be suppressed in the short term, and shipments are expected to decline by more than 40%. From the supply side, the epidemic has negatively affected the supply chain of the mobile phone industry (mainly reflected in the impact on the production process of new models). Although Huawei resumed work on February 3, resumption of work is not the same as resumption of production. Due to supply chain constraints, Huawei currently cannot fully restore its original capacity. In addition, Foxconn, the largest foundry manufacturer of the iPhone, is currently not optimistic. MIR understands that after the epidemic is stable, the entire industry chain will catch orders by overtime and other means. This year's investment plan will be delayed on a large scale and is expected to be released in the second and third quarters.

       Despite the impact of the epidemic in the first quarter, it does not change the growth qualitative of 5G mobile phone replacement in 2020. Xiaomi released the 5G mobile phone Mi 10 in February, and Huawei will release the 5G folding mobile phone Mate Xs in the first quarter. In addition, Apple is expected to release a cheap version of the iPhone in March, which is expected to continue to regain China's market share through price reduction and low price strategies. In addition to the new machine, due to the consumer attributes and seasonal characteristics of the consumer electronics industry, revenue in the first quarter accounted for a small proportion of the whole year. The off-season impact will be compensated through the later quarters, and the demand in the first quarter will be deferred to the peak season. Taken together, the annual growth rate is expected to be in single digits.

● Medical supplies:
       Under the epidemic, the direct benefits of medical-related industries, especially the medical consumables industry, are in short supply. Products such as masks, goggles, and protective clothing are in short supply. Demand for industrial robots in application scenarios such as sorting and packaging has increased. Take masks as an example. At present, they are mainly produced by special mask equipment. Due to the soft material of the mask, it is not easy to realize automatic loading and unloading. The subsequent packaging process is often manual operation, which seriously restricts the capacity of the mask factory. Industrial robots have large application scenarios in the field of back-end packaging. At present, many mask factories are looking for automated transformation of the back-end packaging end. Domestic robot manufacturers have also launched targeted automation solutions, such as the use of industrial robots in combination with conveyor tracking and visual recognition technology to achieve automatic mask packaging.
       Due to its flexible characteristics, medical supplies packaging is still a labor-intensive industry, and some production scenarios have specific requirements for hygiene and safety, which are not suitable for manual operation. In the future, robots will have a large replacement space in this field. At present, Delta or SCARA robots are mostly used in packaging lines for sorting, sorting, boxing, boxing, and bar code labeling operations. Six-axis robots are used for palletizing operations. The epidemic will improve the industry's awareness of robotics and accelerate the process of machine substitution in the medical industry.
       ● Photovoltaic:
       2020 is probably the year of the last batch of new PV subsidies in China, and the domestic market will usher in "ultimate rush installation". Although the epidemic situation has adversely affected the construction progress of the bidding projects and put pressure on the photovoltaic industry, only the demand has shifted back and it has not affected the overall demand. And because the photovoltaic bidding policy was released ahead of the Spring Festival this year, the company had sufficient time for preparation and construction, and some of the existing projects in 2019 were carried forward to 2020, so the new photovoltaic installation capacity will continue to grow throughout the year. And the first quarter is the traditional off-season of the photovoltaic industry. As companies gradually resume work, this effect will be quickly digested. In addition, the epidemic is likely to accelerate the process of reshuffle of the photovoltaic industry. During the epidemic, the acceleration of the exit of small businesses that are greatly affected by personnel and cash flow will help increase industry concentration.
       On the eve of the full cancellation of subsidies, photovoltaic companies are "rushing to install" to speed up and accelerate production capacity, which will bring more application opportunities for industrial robots, especially the application of ultra-high-speed SCARA, such as robots used in wafer cleaning, string welding machines , Row and other links.
      1.3 Prediction of the growth of industrial robot models in 2020
       ● MIR predicts that the overall growth rate of China's industrial robot market in 2020 will be 5%. From the perspective of models, the growth rate of Delta, Collaborative, and SCARA products will be higher than the overall average growth rate.
       ● Among them, Delta has the highest growth rate. With its compact structure, high speed, high precision, and flexible operation, Delta's future demand in electronics, food, daily chemicals, medical supplies, and other industries will greatly increase, such as the use of Delta Achieve applications such as item sorting, precision assembly, and packaging.
       ● Collaboration: With the continuous improvement and optimization of products by collaborating manufacturers, such as technological innovations such as large loads, visual integration, force control systems, and collaboration with AGV, the future collaboration application scenarios will expand to more fields. The epidemic will also accelerate the exploration of the application of the downstream market in the collaborative market, such as medical material distribution, packaging of medical products, unmanned logistics between factories / workshops, and unmanned retail.
       ● SCARA demand is expected to be released: 2020 will be a year of Apple investment, and the epidemic will not change the trend of 5G replacement. Driven by the demand of the 3C industry, the growth rate of the SCARA market is expected to change from negative to positive, higher than the average growth rate. In addition, the lithium battery, photovoltaic, semiconductor, automotive electronics, and medical industries will also promote the SCARA market to varying degrees.